Notre Dame Football Predictor Instructions

The neural network takes as inputs 14 parameters describing the "situation" in the game. Every time a parameter is adjusted, the program automatically makes a new probability prediction based on the new data and displays it graphically on the lower right hand corner of the screen.

Given the situation data, the program predicts the probability that different plays will be run. So, for example, if the graph shows a bar of length 12 next to the "FB run" line, the program is predicting a 12% chance the Notre Dame will run a fullback run in the given situation. A full list of abbreviations and play descriptions are available.

The primary inputs:

Some of the parameters can be changed directly on the applet screen:

The down.
The quarter.
Time outs left.
Time left in the quarter.
The score.
How far it is to a first down.
Field position (yard line).
Field position (between the hash marks).

The down, quarter, time outs, time and score can be directly adjusted by selecting the appropriate buttons or adjusting the sliders on the upper left-hand part of the screen.

The inputs corresponding to yards to go for a first down and field position can be adjusted in the window in the lower left hand corner of the screen which shows a graphic representing a football field.

The brown oval on the field represents represents the ball location on the field and can be adjusted by dragging it with the mouse. The ball can be moved both up and down the field, changing the yard line, as well as laterally across the field between the hash marks. The blue lines move up and down the field with the ball so its location can be accurately adjusted.

The red line represents the first down line and can be moved up and down the field by dragging it with the mouse. Since these inputs adjust field position as well as yards to go for a first down, it is important to have the ball and first down line accurately located on the football field.

The program always assumes that the direction of play is from the ball to the first down line. Therefore, if the ball is moved past the first down line, the displayed prediction will be for the opposite direction of play. The direction of play is important because one of the inputs to the program is how many yards there are to go for a touchdown.

Secondary inputs:

By clicking on the "Additional Settings..." button, a window will appear with some more inputs. These inputs need to be changed much less frequently than the primary inputs.

These inputs are:

The weather quality, specified on a scale of 1 to 10. 10 represents good weather conditions for football. 7 or 8 represent a light rain and a wet field or windy conditions, or the equivalent. A 5 represents a heavy rain or snow. A 1 is designed to represent heavy rain and strong wind, or hurricane-like conditions. In all the data used to train the network, there have never been weather conditions represented on this scale by less than a 5.
Relative strength represents the relative strength of the teams before the game. A relative strength of 1 means that Notre Dame is a heavy favorite to win the game. Conversely, a relative strength of -1 means that Notre Dame is a big underdog. Logically, then, a relative strength of 0 means that the teams are evenly matched. This input should not be changed during the game.
The next three inputs represent how successful three primary plays have been, and should be adjusted once or twice a quarter. How successful plays have been are represented on a scale from -1 to 1, where -1 means that a play has been unsuccessful most of the time, a 1 means that Notre Dame can run it at will, and a 0 means that the play has had about average success.

Unlike the primary inputs, the program does not make a new prediction automatically when the values for the secondary inputs are adjusted. The "Apply" button will hide the window and cause the program to calculate a new prediction based on the adjusted inputs in the window. The "Cancel" button hides the window, but does not have the program calculate a new prediction based on the changed settings. If the "Additional Settings..." button is pressed again after the "Cancel" button is pressed, the old values for the settings will be displayed.

Last updated: November 14, 1996.